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作者: 老蝎   茶党、茉莉花与汤因比,一位资深投资家的在国债危机中的反思 2011-08-01 12:45:55  [点击:1317]
Jeffrey Saut不是那种语不惊人死不休的评论家,在投资策略上他是非常务实的,既不是永远的牛派(perma bull),也不是永远的熊派(perma bear)。他不跟市场斗,也不跟联储局斗,更不会跟联邦政府斗,既不为天下先,也不落天下后。但这并不等于他是那种被市场牵着鼻子乱转、随大流的人。在我跟踪的那些评论家中,他虽不算是最敏锐最深邃的思想者,但言必有中。今天的评论体现出他的大局观和历史感:

Investment Strategy by Jeffrey Saut

下面选译我认为最有价值的部分:

Again, “In my opinion the U.S. government will NOT default on its sovereign debt.” If, however, it does not raise the debt ceiling there would be an urgent need to prioritize where the $200 billion per month accruing to governmental coffers would be spent. Obviously, I think our sovereign debt obligations would be first, followed by Social Security, veterans checks, folks on disability, military personnel, etc. The people likely to be the biggest casualties would be 2.8 million federal workers and the ~5 million state workers that would probably be furloughed when departments like HHS shut down. Yet while everyone is focused on the current debt ceiling crisis, there is a cathartic moment at hand that could potentially change the course of our nation.

我的意见是美国政府绝不会对国债违约... 然而当每个人都聚焦在眼前的国债上限危机时,这个令人有宣泄感的时刻可能会改变我们国家的历史走向。

Recall, the American Revolution planted the seeds that led to the French Revolution because the American victory inspired the thinking that governments should serve the people, not vice versa. Verily, it was the writings of Voltaire and Rousseau that spread said mindset to the common man, eventually allowing Napoleon to seize power and institute the Napoleonic Code, making the legal system more fair and accessible to all. Fast forward, at the beginning of this year Iranian student protests surfaced again and seemed to spill into Tunisia. Accordingly, since January I have been reflecting on the American – French Revolution cause and effect sequence as I watched events unfold in Tunisia.

回想一下,美国独立革命为法国大革命埋下了种子,因为独立革命的胜利激发了政府应该服务人民的思想。也正是伏尔泰与卢梭的著作把这种思想传播到普通人中间,最终让拿破仑掌握了大权并制定出拿破仑法典,使得司法体系更公平和对所有人开放。快进到现在,在今年初,伊朗学生抗议运动再次浮现并似乎漫延到突尼斯。因为如此,从一月开始,在观看突尼斯事件的发展过程中,我一直在反思美国-法国革命的因果序列关系。

To me, the seeds of the Tunisia revolution were indeed sewn by the Iranian student riots of 2009 and 2010, which occurred not only in Iran but in other cities around the world. While the Iranian Green Movement was suppressed with the closing of universities, brutal beatings, firearms, etc., it became known as the “Twitter Revolution” because protestors used various social-networking sites to communicate with each other, as well as other protestors throughout the Mid-East region. This is why the movement has also been labeled The Persian Awakening.

在我看来,突尼斯革命的种子是伊朗学生在2009-2010暴动时播下的。这场运动不仅在伊朗,也在世界其它城市发生。在伊朗政府通过关闭大学、野蛮殴打、火器等手段把“绿色运动”镇压的同时,运动被人称为“推特革命”,因为抗议者通过各种网上社交手段与彼此、甚至整个中东地区的抗议者联系。这是为什么运动也被称为“波斯苏醒”。

The Tunisia revolution ended with the collapse of despot Ben Ali’s 23-year dictatorship, which was the first collapse of an Arab leader due to the uprising of the common people e-v-e-r. Shortly thereafter, Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak resigned from his 30-year rule, amid the cheers of hundreds of thousands of emotional Egyptians. That was followed by similar riots in Bahrain; currently the freedom struggle has morphed to Syria.

突尼斯革命以本阿里23年独裁统治的垮台而结束。这也是阿拉伯世界里有史以来第一次某位统治者被普通民众的起义所推翻。不久之后,埃及的胡斯尼 穆巴拉克在数十万激动的埃及人的欢呼声中宣布辞职,结束了其30年的统治。接下来在巴林发生了类似的暴乱。现在争取自由的斗争已转进到叙利亚。

If this sequence sounds familiar, then you have likely studied Arnold Toynbee’s analysis of the rise and fall of civilizations. Toynbee explained how society’s elite rise to the challenges of the times, and find solutions, even if those solutions call for a radical break with the past. As the brainy GaveKal organization writes:

如果这个序列听起来耳熟,那么你可能学习过阿诺德 汤因比对文明兴衰的分析。汤因比解释了一个社会的精英是如何在面对时代的挑战时寻求解决方案,即使这些解决方案要求与过去彻底决裂。正如聪明的 GaveKal 组织所写道:

“Meanwhile, the modus operandi for most leaders is to try and maintain the status quo, and restore the ‘old order’ that prevailed before the disruption. But if the problems are large enough, this does not work, and the same challenges reappear until either a solution is found (e.g., the European Union project as the solution to Franco-German rivalry), the elite is replaced by a new elite (i.e., revolution), or the country, system or civilization disappears (e.g., end of the Soviet Union). Now if one buys into Toynbee’s grid of reference, then it is possible that welfare states everywhere around the world are entering revolutionary times....If today’s elites cannot fathom confronting the imbedded benefits of civil servants and pensioners anymore than Louis XVI could take on the privileges of French aristocrats, then following Toynbee’s grid, we have to fear that elites will be changed forcefully....Historically, foxes are replaced by lions in the US and the UK, [and] by demagogues elsewhere. We fully expect that coming elections across the Western world will produce some hair-raising outcomes.”

“与此同时,大多数领导者的手法是试图保持现状,并恢复在中断发生前的“旧秩序”。但如果问题太过严重,这个办法就没有用,而且同样的挑战会不断重现,直到有了最终解决(比如欧盟工程之于德法对抗),旧的精英被新的取代(比如革命),或者整个国家、系统、文明的消逝(如苏联的终结)。如果一个人相信了汤因比的参考架构,那么就可以看到目前世界范围里的福利国家可能在进入革命期。... 如果今天的精英们不能想象削减公务员与退休者享受的优惠,正如路易16不能减少法国贵族们的特权,那么按照汤因比的逻辑,我们恐怕今天的精英们就会被强力取代。... 历史上,在美国和英国,狐狸们被狮子们取代,在别的国家是被煽动者取代。我们全面期待下一轮西方国家的选举将带来某些毛骨悚然、不可思议的结果。”

Hair-raising indeed, because this Toynbee sequence is becoming increasingly prevalent in places like Greece, Portugal, Spain, etc.; and most recently, in the United States vis-à-vis the Tea Party. Now while I don’t embrace the Tea Party in its entirety, the change it is fostering is palpable. Nowhere is this more apparent than the current debt ceiling debate. The Tea Party seems to be surfacing our nation’s “political corruption” that hinders the proliferation of prosperity. Interestingly, they are not the first, for similar thoughts were scribed by Adam Smith in the Wealth of Nations. Now whether you like, or hate, the Tea Party, there is definitely a change afoot that over the long-term could be extremely bullish for the economy, the stock market, and our country.

真的是毛骨悚然,因为汤因比序列正在象希腊、葡萄牙、西班牙这些地方愈演愈烈。在美国,就是近来的茶党运动。尽管我并不全面拥抱茶党,但他们促进的变化是显而易见的,尤其是在这次国债上限的辩论中。茶党似乎是揭露了我们国家里阻碍繁荣的“政治腐败”。他们不是最先的,亚当 斯密的国富论里也有类似的论述。无论你是喜欢还是憎恶茶党,变化正在发生,而且很可能对我们的经济、股市、和整个国家的远景都非常有利。
最后编辑时间: 2011-08-01 12:48:22

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